Autores: Diogo da Silva Borges, Rodrigo P.B. Costa-Félix, Deise Diana Lava, Maria de Lourdes Moreira

Resumo:The analysis of systems aging has a fundamental role in quality assurance and the reliability of processes and operations. The adoption of methodologies capable of predicting the availability of systems susceptible to aging is essential for this. Thus, the paper presents a method capable of predicting a system’s behavior based on its degradation caused by aging. Predictive and statistical analysis techniques were used, such as Fault Tree and Fussel-Vesely Techniques, Principal Component Analysis, and the Monte Carlo Method. The proposed methodology considers uncertainties associated, which is a determining factor in quantifying the probability of systems failure. As a result of the proposal, the paper presents a model capable of detailing the behavior of a system, adopted as an example application case, and the contribution of its components to its unavailability, according to Weibull’s Probability Density Function. The present paper has relevance regarding studies and research about aging, indicating a way for analysis and applications in installations that require high reliability of equipment and systems.

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